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2023 Farmers Insurance Open odds, picks, field: Surprising PGA predictions from model that’s nailed 8 majors

2023 Farmers Insurance Open odds, picks, field: Surprising PGA predictions from model that's nailed 8 majors thumbnail

The 2023 Farmers Insurance Open will provide golf fans with some star-studded groupings through the first two days of action. Jon Rahm, who’s won each of his last two starts, will play alongside Tony Finau and Justin Thomas when play gets underway on Wednesday, Jan. 25, from Torrey Pines Golf Course. Rahm won this event in 2017 and earned a runner-up finish in 2020. Elsewhere in the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open field, Collin Morikawa, a two-time major champion, will be paired with Max Homa and Will Zalatoris, who recorded a runner-up finish at this event last year.

Rahm enters this week’s event as the 4-1 favorite according to the latest 2023 Farmers Insurance Open odds. He’s followed by Xander Schauffele (12-1), Morikawa (12-1), Finau (12-1) and Thomas (13-1) on the PGA odds board. Before locking in any 2023 Farmers Insurance Open picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up over $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure’s model predicted Jon Rahm to finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. The model also included J.T. Poston in its best bets to win the 2022 John Deere Classic. That bet hit at +5500, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned almost $1,100. At the 2022 Masters, McClure’s model was all over Scottie Scheffler’s first career major championship victory heading into the weekend.

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In addition, McClure’s best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright at the 2021 Open Championship, even though he was listed as a massive 40-1 long shot. The model was also all over Jon Rahm’s (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner.

This same model has also nailed a whopping eight majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open field is locked, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2023 Farmers Insurance Open predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open: Morikawa, a five-time PGA Tour champion and one of the favorites at 12-1, stumbles this week and barely cracks the top-10. Morikawa secured a runner-up finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions despite shooting a 72 in the final round. 

However, Morikawa has been extremely inconsistent with his putter this season. In fact, Morikawa enters this week’s event ranked 114th in strokes gained: putting (-.056), 133rd in one-putt percentage (38.19%) and 168th in overall putting average (1.642). He also ranks 214th on the PGA Tour in approaches from 75-100 yards. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the Farmers Insurance Open 2023 field.

Another surprise: Max Homa, a 22-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

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Homa enters this week’s event hitting the ball extremely well off the tee, averaging 305.7 yards per drive this season. Homa’s ability to drive the ball deep into the fairway allows him to use his short irons to approach the green. That lethal combination has helped him hit 73.61% of greens in regulation this season. The 32-year-old also ranks sixth in birdie average (5.31), which helped him secure a victory at the Fortinet Championship earlier this season. Homa is one of the top value picks that should be all over your radar this week at the Farmers Insurance Open 2023. See who else to pick here

How to make 2023 Farmers Insurance Open picks

The model is also targeting three other golfers with odds of 20-1 or longer who will make surprising runs, including a massive 85-1 longshot. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s PGA picks here.

So who will win the Farmers Insurance Open 2023? And which longshots stun the golfing world? Check out the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2023 Farmers Insurance Open leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed eight golf majors, including last year’s Masters.

2023 Farmers Insurance Open odds, field

See full the Farmers Insurance Open 2023 picks, best bets, and predictions here.

Jon Rahm +400

Xander Schauffele +1200

Collin Morikawa +1200

Tony Finau +1200

Justin Thomas +1300

Will Zalatoris +1400

Sungjae Im +2000

Max Homa +2200

Taylor Montgomery +2600

Jason Day +2700

Hideki Matsuyama +3100

Si Woo Kim +3300

Sahith Theegala +4200

Maverick Mcnealy +4200

Cameron Davis +4500

J.J. Spaun +5000

Justin Rose +5000

Keegan Bradley +5000

Harris English +6000

Scott Stallings +6500

Hayden Buckley +7000

Luke List +7500

Alex Smalley +7500

Taylor Pendrith +8500

Wyndham Clark +9500

Adam Hadwin +9500

Davis Thompson +9500

Kurt Kitayama +9500

Ryan Palmer +10000

Gary Woodland +10000

Rickie Fowler +10000

Adam Svensson +10000

Thomas Detry +10000

Davis Riley +11000

Patrick Rodgers +11000

Will Gordon +11000

Emiliano Grillo +11000

Robby Shelton +11000

Cameron Champ +12000

Dean Burmester +12000

Trey Mullinax +12000

Carson Young +12000

Nick Hardy +14000

S.H. Kim +14000

Aaron Rai +15000

Ben Taylor +15000

Charley Hoffman +15000

Byeong Hun An +15000

Ben Griffin +15000

Garrick Higgo +15000

Sebastian Munoz +15000

Kevin Yu +15000

Matthew NeSmith +15000

Lanto Griffin +16000

Stephan Jaeger +16000

Sam Ryder +16000

Beau Hossler +16000

Brendan Steele +17000

Matthias Schmid +19000

Justin Suh +19000

Callum Tarren +19000

Lee Hodges +20000

Patton Kizzire +20000

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