Science & Nature

Excess Deaths from COVID Pandemic

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In March 2020, the Imperial College of London forecasted global 2020 pandemic deaths of 40 million if no action was taken, and now the Economist magazine model shows nearly 10 million excess global deaths.

The official reported global COVID deaths is about 3.4 million. The official reported global COVID deaths increased by 800,000 from March 2021.

In March, 2021, Nextbigfuture had reviewed the excess death data and found actual COVID and non-COVID actual global deaths likely range from 3.5 to 8 million.

Public-health authorities classify anyone who dies within weeks of a positive covid-19 test as a covid-19 death.

Some people are counted as a covid death but many more are not tested and are not counted.

Most African countries do not perform population census. There are many poor countries that do not have good medical systems to perform COVID tests. There are many poor countries that do not have proper registration of deaths. This is also a problem for poor countries in Asia.

The pandemic has had indirect effects on death rates. There are fewer traffic accident deaths but more deaths from untreated or inadequately treated medical conditions.

If the COVID pandemic stretches out for other two years about the time needed to vaccinate most of the people in Africa and Asia, the excess death total might be around the 40 million global deaths modeled by the Imperial College of London. The Imperial College of London was a one-year unchecked Pandemic.

SOURCES- Economist, Imperial college of London.

Written by Brian Wang,

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